After attending Adobe MAX Milan, I realised that Flash Catalyst was mentioned in 95% of all seminars I visited,  in one way or the other. In other words, Adobes commitment to Flash Catalyst is quite obvious.
That, or they are unsure how to convince people of what their latest tools consist of.

If we see it from both a designers and a developers point of view, I can see the overall plan for it:
Designers are frustrated with what developers make from their design and their thoughts on animation/transitions. Developers on the other hand, might be tired of always having to think about the animations and overall "feeling" of the transitions.
One could say that Catalyst helps build a bridge between the two worlds and that sound pretty good.

One problem that might come up is what developers will expect from the code created by catalyst. We all know that WYSIWYGs aren't perfect and that we often have to "fix" the code we are given. In other words, there might be some scepticism that developers have to overcome to accept Catalyst.
It’s also a fact that many designers working with the web today, still don’t understand everything that is involved in a web project. Some of them don’t see beyond the Photoshop comp and thereby won’t understand Catalyst fully, which means that they either wont touch Catalyst, or would use it half the way. Either way, Catalyst might not be accepted as part of the project workflow as its intended to be.

I also got the impression that even Adobe is unsure on where to position the tool, and how to sell it in to its customers. Some speakers saw it as a wireframe tool, used just to show ideas/sketches on how things would transition between states. Others saw it as a skinning tool. Others hoped that it would integrate with the current workflow of projects, so that one could take a flex project back and forth between Flex Builder and Catalyst and just use each tool for what its best for.

For me, and the company I work at, we see a couple of scenarios where Flash Catalyst might be very useful.
We could use it for our partners, when we act as production agency. They could deliver a "finished" Photoshop comp and we could create a quick animated version to show how stages might interact (and use it in Flex Builder later). This could cut down approval processes later on.
We could also use it directly from our own design, as Adobe has mentioned it in it's sales pitches, as the tool to use between design and the rest of the logic.
We could also us it when creating sketches, thereby adding another dimension to them by showing of intended transitions.

So to wrap it up, I think that Adobe Flash Catalyst could be very useful but Adobe has some challenges to overcome. If they find a good way of integrating everything with the rest of the Creative Suite, and convince designers and developers that the tool will improve their work, they might have a winning new tool to add to its range of products.

The question is where the rest of their products are positioned. Will Flash CS4 be “just” an animation tool and let Catalyst and Flex be the tools for all other productions? And can Catalyst stand on its own for simpler Flash sites? And where can we as developers find the greatest us for it?